STATEMENT: Response to American Crossroads negative ad on taxes

Response to American Crossroads negative ad on taxes, from Bill Burton, Priorities USA Action:

"The billionaires and oil companies funding these ads are desperate to stop President Obama's plan that would ask them to pay their fair share in taxes to reduce our debt and create jobs. Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, and Karl Rove will spend millions on false television ads because they know that the American public strongly supports the President's plan that will finally ensure billionaires do not pay a lower tax rate than middle class families. No fair-minded American thinks that someone like Mitt Romney should pay an estimated 14 percent tax rate while hardworking Americans are paying far more."

Background:

Citizens for Tax Justice Estimate: Romney's Tax Rate is 14%. According to Time's Swampland, "…the source of Romney’s income allows him to pay a lower percentage of his money to the federal government each year than many middle-class wage earners….Calculating the Romneys’ exact tax burden is not possible from the public records because of a number of factors, like the amount of money that Romney deducted from his taxes and the length of time that he owned investments, are unknown. But ballpark estimates are possible. Assuming that Romney declared roughly the same number of deductions as others in his income level and that his dividend and capital gains income qualified for the 15% bracket, Romney would have paid roughly 14% of his gross income in taxes to the federal government in 2010 according to Bob McIntyre, who crafts tax policy at the left-leaning Citizens for Tax Justice." [TIME,10/3/11]

A tax increase on wealthy Americans is consistently top proposal for closing the deficit. Gallup found this week that 66% favored increasing taxes on the rich and 70% favored increasing taxes on corporations by eliminating loopholes. [Sept 15-18] Increasing taxes on the wealthy was the most popular option for reducing the deficit, with 63% supporting it in a CNN poll (including 62% of independents and even 39% of Republicans.) [Aug 5-7] Ending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy was the single most popular deficit reduction proposal in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll with 60% saying it was totally or mostly acceptable. [Aug 27-31]

Americans believe a deficit plan must include tax increases and spending cuts. In the CBS/New York Times poll, 71% think that a deficit reduction plan should include both tax increases and spending cuts. Only 21% support spending cuts alone. [Sept 10-15] 60% believe it is mostly or totally unacceptable for a deficit reduction plan to exclude tax increases. [NBC/WSJ,Aug 27-31] 69% believe that tax increases are necessary to balance the budget. [Associated Press, Aug 18-22]

Fundamentally, Americans believe that wealthy taxpayers should contribute more. “Which of these statements comes closest to your view:

• Taxes on wealthy people should be kept low because they invest their money in the private sector and that helps the economy and creates jobs (34%) 

• Taxes on wealthy people should be kept high so the government can use their money for programs to help lower-income people (62%)” [CNN, Aug 5-7]

SUNDAY SHOW MEMO: Hey Mitt -- They’re Just Not That Into You

TO: Interested Parties

FR: Bill Burton, Priorities USA Action

RE: SUNDAY MEMO: Hey Mitt -- They’re Just Not That Into You

The list of Republican elected officials who’ve been dragged into considering the Presidential race this year isn’t short: Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, John Thune, Paul Ryan, Rick Perry, Bob McDonnell, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee and now Chris Christie. They’ve all been courted not because of who they are but because of who they aren’t: Mitt Romney.

After spending over $100 million and five years running for President, Romney hasn’t been able to overcome the fact that Republican voters just aren’t that into him.

While Romney barely improved in national polling since September 2007, he quickly fell back to the teens when Perry first entered the race, highlighting the lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy. His standing in some key states has actually declined from four years ago, including Iowa and Nevada.

Major conservative leaders who endorsed Romney in 2008, including Jim DeMint and Nikki Haley, have notably declined to do so this year.

In fundraising, Romney has even fallen behind his last campaign’s pace. In the first quarter of his campaign in 2007, Romney raised $23.5 million. The first quarter of his campaign in 2011 was $18.2 million.

It can’t help Romney’s fundraising that the wealthiest money men in the Republican Party are publicly begging for the entrance of Christie, the 19-month New Jersey governor. If there were ever a natural constituency for Romney it should be fellow Republican investment bankers—but even they aren’t sold.

Mitt Romney may well end up the Republican nominee but it won’t be because the Republican Party wants him. They will have simply exhausted all other options.

Background:

Mitt Romney's current fundraising performance lags behind his own fundraising during his previous run for President. According to the Boston Globe, "During the first six months of his last campaign, he raised $35 million and also loaned himself $8.8 million. During the first six months of this campaign, he appears on pace to raise about $31 million." In his first fundraising quarter of the 2008 campaign, he raised $23.5 million versus$18.2 million for the first quarter of the 2012 campaign. [Boston Globe,9/29/11; Washington Post, 7/6/11]

Top Republicans Fundraisers are Searching for an Alternative to Mitt Romney. A recent article in the New York Times named Kenneth Langone, Paul Singer, David Koch, Charles Schwab, Stanley Druckenmiller, David Tepper and Daniel Loeb as not committed to a candidate for the 2012 cycle and privately urging New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to join the race. According to the New York Times, "Meet the Draft Christie committee, a small but influential group of Republican-leaning donors and activists, many based in New York, united by a shared desire to see Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey run for president." [New York Times, 9/26/11]

DeMint, Haley Backed Romney in 2008 but Have Declined to So Far in 2012. [The Hill, 3/17/11; ABC, 5/15/11]

Compared to his presidential run in 2008, Mitt Romney is currently trailing his own standing during the last election cycle in Iowa. An average of four polls conducted among Iowa Republican voters in September of 2007 showed that Mitt Romney received 26% of Republican support. An average of three polls conducted in August 2011 reveals that Romney currently receives 18% of support. [American Research Group,9/26-9/29/07; Newsweek, 9/26-9/27/07; Strategic Visions, 9/21-9/23/07; LA Times/Bloomberg, 9/6-9/10/07; Rasmussen, 8/31/11; Magellan Strategies, 8/22-8/23/11; Public Policy Polling, 8/19-8/21/11] [Note: These are the three most recent public polls of the Iowa Caucus for the 2012 cycle.]

Current polling shows Mitt Romney far behind his 2008 victory in the Nevada caucuses. In 2008, Mitt Romney won the Nevada caucuses easily with 51.1% of the vote, 37 points ahead of the second place finisher. One poll has been conducted in Nevada during September 2011; Romney received 24% of support. [Real Clear Politics, 1/19/08; Magellan Strategies, 8/29-8/31/11]

Romney Failed to Gain in Polls After Even When Rivals Have Stumbled. According to the New York Times’ Nate Silver, “The polls suggest that Rick Perry’s struggles in the debate — amplified by a storm of skepticism among influential Republicans — have taken a bite out of his numbers. But the spoils seem to have gone mainly to other conservative candidates in the race, rather than Mr. Romney… you have a candidate in Mr. Romney who has run a very good campaign, who has performed well in the debates, and who leads in fund-raising and endorsements — but who is still barely above 20 percent in surveys, and has made only marginal gains as a number of his rivals have stumbled.” [New York Times, 9/29/11]

MEMO: Republican Double-Talk on Hispanic Voters

TO:  Interested Parties

FR:  Bill Burton, Priorities USA Action

RE:  MEMO: Republican Double-Talk on Hispanic Voters

DA:   September 24, 2011

While the Republican presidential field debated who could be most hostile to Hispanic Americans at the Florida debate, the Republican group American Action Network was setting up the chairs for their ‘Hispanic Leadership Network’ conference in Albuquerque.

The double-talk from Republicans is nothing new. One year ago, the American Action Network had much less interest in Hispanic engagement conferences as they spent millions on negative ads that featured scary images of immigrants scaling chain-link fences and claims that Democrats would take money from seniors to provide free health care to immigrants. Beyond the intentionally incendiary rhetoric, the ads were false and television stations in Colorado and Connecticut pulled them off the air.

During the last debates, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, and others have taken turns bashing a Texas law -- a version of the DREAM Act -- that provides a chance at college for children of undocumented immigrants who were brought here by their parents. Rick Santorum even claimed the Texas law was “an attempt to attract illegal vote — I mean Latino — voters.” It’s a law that had the support of Democrats and Republicans because it was designed to provide a pathway to productivity for young people through education. As Republican consultant Mike Murphy noted during the tuition exchange, “Perry taking water on immigration. But careful GOP. Wanna win NV, CO, NM, FL? I hope so.”

Even Rick Perry is shifting to the right. He ridiculed the DREAM Act as “amnesty” earlier this week, joining Mitt Romney who opposes the legislation that would provide a path to citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants who risk their lives defending America in our military or who complete a college education. Polls show that up to 70% of Americans support the legislation, including 77% of Hispanics.

Add to this Romney’s retreat from previous support for a pathway to citizenship in immigration reform and you have a Republican field that is in a full sprint away from the reasonable bipartisan consensus on immigration.

Whoever wins the Republican nomination will inevitably tack to the center on a symbolic rhetorical issue. But Republican candidates will find out that Hispanic voters, like all Americans, pick a President on much more than a change in rhetoric. Their right-wing talking points in this primary season on education, job creation, immigration and taxes will not be forgotten. Priorities USA Action will play an important role making sure that is the case.

Background

In-State Tuition:

Republican Consultant Mike Murphy on Republican Attacks on In-State Tuition: “Perry taking water on immigration. But careful GOP. Wanna win NV, CO, NM, FL? I hope so.” [Mike Murphy Twitter]

Texas Law to Provide In-State Tuition to the Children of Illegal Immigrants Passed With Broad Bipartisan Support. According to US News and World Report, “In 2001, Perry signed the Texas DREAM Act, which allows in-state tuition for students who have lived in Texas for three years and either have obtained a GED or graduated from the state's public or accredited private schools. The state legislature had passed the law with bipartisan support.” [US News and World Report, 7/25/11]

Bashing Texas Law, Santorum Said the Effort Was an Attempt to Gain “Illegal vote – I mean Latino voters” Rick Santorum used a question about how the Republican Party should attract Latino voters to attack a Texas law that gives children of undocumented immigrants in-state tuition rates. He said, “What Gov. Perry has done is he provided in-state tuition for illegal immigrants, maybe that was an attempt to attract illegal vote — I mean Latino — voters.” [Talking Points Memo, 9/12/11]

DREAM Act:

Despite Granting In-State Tuition for Undocumented Students, Perry Now Bashing DREAM Act as "Amnesty." In an interview with Sean Hannity, Perry replied to a question on his immigration record and stated that, “the DREAM Act for instance, the federal dream act, straight out amnesty, not for it, not going to be for it.” [Fox News, 9/21/11]

A Poll Conducted by Latino Decisions Revealed that 77.5% of Hispanic Voters Support the DREAM Act. According to a poll of registered Hispanic voters in 21 states conducted in September 2010, 77.5% of respondents supported the DREAM Act. [Latino Decisions, 9/27/10]

A Poll Conducted by Opinion Research Corporation Found that 70% of Respondents Support the DREAM Act. According to a national poll of men and women over the age of 18 conducted by Opinion Research, 70% of respondents supported the DREAM Act. [First Focus, 6/29/10] A separate Gallup poll found 57% of independents supporting the DREAM Act. [Gallup, 12/10/11]

Romney Shifting on Immigration:

2005 Romney: Senate Immigration Bill Is “Quite Different” From Amnesty And Those Opposing Bush Comprehensive Reform “Made a Big Mistake” “In a November 2005 interview with the Globe, Romney described immigration proposals by McCain and others as ‘quite different’ from amnesty, because they required illegal immigrants to register with the government, work for years, pay taxes, not take public benefits, and pay a fine before applying for citizenship. ‘That’s very different than amnesty, where you literally say, ‘OK, everybody here gets to stay,” Romney said in the interview. ‘It’s saying you could work your way into becoming a legal resident of the country by working here without taking benefits and then applying and then paying a fine.’ Romney spoke approvingly of efforts by McCain and Bush to solve the nation’s immigration crisis, calling them ‘reasonable proposals.’” Romney also said that Republicans who opposed Bush's comprehensive immigration reform plan "made a big mistake." [Boston Globe, 3/16/07; Associated Press, 9/19/06]

2011 Romney: Campaign Strategy Focused on Putting Romney to the Right of Perry by Attacking Tuition. According to the Washington Post’s Marc Thiessen, “The Romney campaign also plans to use immigration to drive a wedge between Perry and his conservative base, by highlighting Perry's opposition to a border fence and legislation he signed in 2001 allowing the children of illegal immigrants to attend Texas colleges and universities at in-state tuition. Without mentioning Perry by name, Romney pointed out at a town hall here in Dover that he vetoed similar legislation as governor of Massachusetts, declaring, "If you say, guess what, if you come here illegally, your kids will get (in-state tuition), that draws more people here illegally."” [Washington Post, 8/29/11]

American Action Network

American Action Network Ads Pulled Off The Air in Connecticut, Colorado. American Action Network saw its ads pulled off the air in Colorado and Connecticut because of false statements about immigrants and health care. [National Journal, 10/26/10; Hartford Courant, 10/26/10]

PRIORITIES POINTS: Americans (still) support higher taxes for the rich

TO: Interested Parties

FR: Priorities USA Action

RE: PRIORITIES POINTS: What Americans (Still) Think About Taxes

DA: September 21, 2011

In October 2008, political observers were shocked. The Washington Post wrote that, “for the first time in decades, Democrats appear to have the upper hand in the debate over taxes.” Senator Barack Obama’s plan included tax increases on the wealthy by ending the Bush tax cuts for those earning over $250,000. From October through Election Day, voters trusted Obama more on taxes than Senator McCain by about ten points.

During this week of rhetorical battles over tax changes in President Obama’s deficit reduction plan, it is worth keeping in mind an important fact: not only do Americans consistently say the best policy option for reducing the deficit is tax increases for the wealthy but they also believe that a deficit reduction plan must include both spending cuts and tax hikes.

There is an undeniable durability to the support Americans have for the wealthy paying their fair share. After three years of relentless Republican efforts to justify tax breaks for the rich, Americans still maintain their fundamental belief that the wealthy should contribute more than they currently do.

Data:

A tax increase on wealthy Americans is consistently top proposal for closing the deficit. Gallup found this week that 66% favored increasing taxes on the rich and 70% favored increasing taxes on corporations by eliminating loopholes. [Sept 15-18] Increasing taxes on the wealthy was the most popular option for reducing the deficit, with 63% supporting it in a CNN poll (including 62% of independents and even 39% of Republicans.) [Aug 5-7] Ending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy was the single most popular deficit reduction proposal in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll with 60% saying it was totally or mostly acceptable. [Aug 27-31]

Americans believe a deficit plan must include tax increases and spending cuts. In the CBS/New York Times poll, 71% think that a deficit reduction plan should include both tax increases and spending cuts. Only 21% support spending cuts alone. [Sept 10-15] 60% believe it is mostly or totally unacceptable for a deficit reduction plan to exclude tax increases. [NBC/WSJ, Aug 27-31] 69% believe that tax increases are necessary to balance the budget. [Associated Press,Aug 18-22]

Fundamentally, Americans believe that wealthy taxpayers should contribute more. “Which of these statements comes closest to your view: • Taxes on wealthy people should be kept low because they invest their money in the private sector and that helps the economy and creates jobs (34%) • Taxes on wealthy people should be kept high so the government can use their money for programs to help lower-income people (62%)” [CNN, Aug 5-7]

RESEARCH MEMO: Dial Test of the President's Speech

TO:  Interested Parties

FROM:  Geoff Garin, Hart Research Associates

DATE:  September 9, 2011

Last night I convened a group of 32 swing voters in suburban Richmond (Eric Cantor’s district) to watch President Obama’s speech to Congress. We measured respondents’ reactions to the speech using interactive dials. In addition to gauging respondents’ moment-to-moment impressions during the speech, we measured the impact of the speech by comparing ratings of President Obama on key attributes before and after his address to Congress.

Simply put, the speech was a home run, and succeeded on several important levels.

Substantively, these swing voters liked the President’s proposals. They came to the speech with deep concerns about the economic situation and came away from the speech persuaded and encouraged that Obama has good ideas for improving America’s economy.

The dial ratings stayed high throughout virtually all of the President’s proposals—with particularly strong responses to his proposals to invest in America’s infrastructure, modernize America’s schools, continue the payroll tax break for middle-class Americans, provide new tax breaks for small businesses, and put teachers who have been laid off back to work.

The dials also reflect a very positive reaction to President Obama’s discussion of the budget and the fact that his jobs proposals would be paid for. Indeed, the section of the speech in which the President laid out the “simple arithmetic” of the choice between maintaining tax breaks and subsidies or spending on basic priorities scores particularly well. In the discussion afterward, respondents said they liked the simplicity, clarity, and realism of this section.

Prior to the speech, fewer than half of the respondents felt that Obama had the better approach to jobs than the Republicans in Congress. After the speech, close to three-quarters said they trust Obama more than the Republicans on the jobs issue.

The message from these voters to Eric Cantor and others in Congress is simple: Pass the President’s plan, and don’t play partisan politics with it.

The speech also gave respondents a much more positive view of Barack Obama as a presidential leader. In addition to producing much improved scores for having good ideas for improving the economy, the speech produced major jumps in the proportion of respondents describing Obama as “a strong leader” and as being “honest and realistic in addressing the country’s challenges.” The speech also produced large increases in the number of respondents who said Obama “cares about people like me” and “looks out for the needs of the middle class.”

In the discussion, there was frequent praise for Obama’s emphasis on picking ideas that have been supported in the past by both Democrats and Republicans. For these respondents, Obama managed to be both unifying and strong at the same time.

This session, which was conducted on behalf of Priorities USA Action, focused on the types of swing voters who Obama must win if he is to be reelected in 2012. Many respondents came into the room feeling discouraged, dispirited, and disappointed, but in last night’s speech they saw the Barack Obama they had hoped they were electing in 2008. Their simple message to President Obama is: Keep it up. They saw the speech as a beginning, and they want the President to continue pressing the case for the agenda he laid out before Congress. They do not want the President’s proposals to succumb to political games on Capitol Hill, and these voters were glad to hear the President say that he would take the case for his jobs legislation directly to the American people.

MEMO: Romney, Southwest Airlines and the Politics of Phony

To: Interested Parties

From: Bill Burton, Priorities USA Action

Re: MEMO: Romney, Southwest Airlines and the Politics of Phony

@MittRomney 31 Aug: Thanks to the great @SouthwestAir crew for an easy flight”; @MittRomney 1 Sept: “Thanks @subwayfreshbuzz for breakfast.”

“Romney to quadruple La Jolla home size” –San Diego Union Tribune, 8/20/11

When Governor Romney decided that he would say or do anything to get elected, you have to imagine he didn't think it would involve flying in non-private aircraft and eating at Subway. In fairness, as someone who made a vast fortune laying off American workers his identity is indeed in need of a makeover. (And quadrupling his beach home in an exclusive San Diego neighborhood isn't exactly helping that effort.)

But in his attempted makeover, Governor Romney is simultaneously highlighting a key weakness: he is willing to do or say anything to become President, even if it means changing his positions, his appearance and his sandwich.

This weekend Romney will fly (commercial, presumably) to New Hampshire and South Carolina for back-to-back Tea Party events he had previously declined. It’s a sudden shift for a campaign that earlier this week telegraphed a strategy of appearing more moderate and electable than Rick Perry. Tea Party members have already trashed Romney’s pandering and the head of one of the largest groups called Romney a, “political opportunist claiming to be a tea partier.”

Governor Perry tried a different brand of phony this week, declaring himself AMERICA'S JOBS GOVERNOR in his literature. As anyone who follows such things would know, Perry's so-called "Texas miracle" was achieved in large part as a result of federal government investments and minimum wage jobs.

And, falling to an asterisk in polls, Jon Huntsman this week tried a phony and unseemly page out of the Romney playbook. While he is claiming to fill the moderate void in the Republican primary, he rolled out an economic plan that was pure right-wing extremism: massive tax cuts for the wealthy, ending Medicare, eliminating regulation on Wall Street and actually raising taxes on the poor and middle class. That Jon Huntsman claims this plan is moderate shows both how desperate his campaign is and how radical the Republican Party has become.

BACKGROUND:

Mitt Romney

Phony: Romney Campaign Using Twitter Photos to Promote Image that Romney Flies Southwest and Eats Subway. According to the Daily Caller, “Mitt Romney is an ordinary American, who flies and eats cheap just like us.Take a look at the Republican presidential candidate’s Twitter feed in recent days, and it’s clear his campaign is making an effort to show that… This isn’t the first time Romney made an effort to not appear so formal, stuffy or wealthy in the age of a weak economy and the tea parties. He’s also noticeably ditched the tie at while on the trail.” [Daily Caller,9/1/11]

Reality: “Mitt Romney, scheduled to attend a series of fundraisers this weekend in San Diego, is also working on plans to nearly quadruple the size of his $12 million oceanfront manse in La Jolla.” [San Diego Union Tribune, 8/20/11]

Reality: “Mitt Romney shelled out more than $5 million in campaign cash over the past three months, including blowing $80,000 on hotel rooms in Las Vegas, $50,000 on a security squad and $125,000 on private jets — despite a pledge to scale back on luxury travel, new campaign filings show.” [Boston Herald, 7/20/11]

Reality: Romney, Who Profited from Laying Off American Workers, Joked About Being Unemployed. [Wall Street Journal, 6/16/11]

Reality: “As poll numbers fall, Romney schedules tea party events” [CNN, 8/30/11]

Reality: FreedomWorks Plans to Protest “Political Opportunist” Romney. “One of the great successes of the decentralized tea party movement has been its ability to self-police. If every political opportunist claiming to be a tea partier is accepted unconditionally, then the tea party brand loses all meaning,” said FreedomWorks President Matt Kibbe announcing his group’s plan to protest Romney. [FreedomWorks Statement, 8/31/11]

Rick Perry

Phony: “Perry’s new campaign literature brands him AMERICA'S JOBS GOVERNOR.” [Politico Playbook, 9/1/11]

Reality: Texas Job Growth Fueled by Expansion of Government Jobs. The Washington Post reported, “With a young and fast-growing population, a large and expanding military presence and an influx of federal stimulus money, the number of government jobs in Texas has grown at more than double the rate of private-sector employment during Perry’s tenure. The disparity has grown sharper since the national recession hit. Between December 2007 and last June, private-sector employment in Texas declined by 0.6 percent while public-sector jobs increased by 6.4 percent, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. Overall, government employees account for aboutone-sixth of the workforce in Texas. The significant role of government in Texas’s relative prosperity stands in stark contrast to the “go-it-alone” image cultivated by Perry, who credits a lack of government interference for fostering a business-friendly environment in Texas.” [Washington Post, 8/20/11]

Reality: Texas Tied for Highest Percentage of Minimum Wage Jobs in the Nation. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Texas, at 9.5 percent, tied with Mississippi for the highest proportion of hourly-paid workers earning at or below the prevailing Federal minimum wage among the 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2010.” [Bureau of Labor Statistics, 3/28/11]

Jon Huntsman

Phony: “Huntsman advisers argue that independents and moderate Republicans will respond well to Huntsman's message.” [Associated Press, 9/2/11]

Reality: Huntsman’s Economic Plan Raises Taxes on the Middle Class In Order to Provide More TaxCuts for the Wealthy. According to the Washington Post’s Ezra Klein, “In other words, Huntsman’s plan raises trillions in new revenues by cleaning out the income-tax code -- which means it raises income taxes -- and then it plows that money into large tax cuts for corporate profits and income derived from dividends and capital gains. Both of those are taxes that fall disproportionately on the wealthy. So Huntsman’s plan increases taxes on most Americans in order to pay for very large tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations.” [Washington Post,9/1/11]

Reality: Huntsman Called for Repealing Wall Street Reform in Economic Speech. [WashingtonPost, 9/1/11]

Reality: Huntsman Reiterated His Support for Ryan Plan to Essentially End Medicare. [National Review, 8/31/11]

MEMO: Perry's Rise -- A reflection of today's Republican Party

TO: Interested Parties

FR: Bill Burton, Priorities USA Action

RE: MEMO: Perry's Rise -- A reflection of today's Republican Party

Rick Perry’s ascension in the polls is a powerful statement on how far mainstream Republican ideology has strayed from mainstream Americans.

Rick Perry thinks that Medicare and Social Security are unconstitutional -- he wrote it in his book. When the health care debate was heating up, he raised the specter of secession. And when asked about the chairman of the Federal Reserve, he used the word "treasonous."

While fair-minded Americans may view these moments as dangerous flashes illustrating the kind of man Rick Perry is, a plurality of Republican primary voters view him as their choice to be the nominee.

But keep in mind the mainstream views of the individuals who make up this Republican primary electorate on issues like evolution and climate change -- as National Journal reported this week:

“In a 2010 Pew survey, only about one in six Republicans said they believed human activity was changing the climate. In a Gallup survey this March that phrased the question differently, 36 percent of Republicans said they believed pollution from human activities had contributed to “increases in the Earth’s temperature over the last century,” while 62 percent of Republicans attributed those changes to natural changes in the environment... On evolution, just 23 percent of Republicans said in a 2009 Pew poll that human life had evolved solely through a natural process, while another 26 percent said evolution had occurred under divine guidance and 39 percent said life has always existed in its present form. When Gallup phrased the choices slightly differently last December, just 8 percent of Republicans said they believed human life had evolved without assistance from God, 36 percent said evolution had proceeded under divine guidance, and a 52 percent majority said God had created “human beings pretty much in their present form.”[“Evolution, Climate Change Could Divide the Republican Party” 8.24.11]

For Rick Perry, the way he matches up with these voters has proven to be at least a short-term political bonanza for him -- but in the long-term, his ideology could have devastating consequences for our country. Especially the middle class.

Perry’s view that Social Security and Medicare are unconstitutional is -- to him -- a very real justification for the House Republican plan that would essentially end Medicare. Virtually every congressional Republican voted for the plan and when Newt Gingrich showed the nerve to (temporarily) question it, he was drummed into irrelevance by the Tea Party. Six months after Gingrich’s implosion, essentially ending Medicare is still a litmus test for the Republican Party and Rick Perry has passed with flying colors.

Perry’s threat that Texas may secede from the union was popular among Texas Republicans and conservatives. 51% of Texas Republicans approved of his comments. His statement is consistent with the Tea Party's broad hatred of the federal government.

Perry’s very loose and dangerous use of the term "treason" is something that brought him criticism from many corners -- just not Republican primary voters.

Voters who are disturbed by ending Medicare, what it means when a major governor threatens secession in the 21st century, and what it means for a major national figure to throw around terms like "treason" should be just as worried about this Republican Party as they are about Texas Governor Rick Perry.

Background

In Newsweek Interview, Perry Argued for Dismantling Social Security and Medicare. According to Newsweek, "Perry believes, for example, that the national Social Security system, which he calls a “failure” that “we have been forced to accept for more than 70 years now,” should be scrapped and that each state should be allowed to create, or not create, its own pension system. “I would suggest a legitimate conversation about let[ting] the states keep their money and implement the programs,” he says. Perry also includes Medicare in his list of programs “the states could substantially better operate,” suggesting that each governor should be “given the freedom from the federal government to come up with his own innovative ways [of] working with his legislature to deliver his own health-care innovations to his citizens.”" [Newsweek/The Daily Beast, 8/12/11]

Perry: Social Security and Medicare are Unconstitutional. According to Time, “Texas Governor Rick Perry grabbed headlines over the weekend as the latest Republican to announce a run for President. He is also making news for some extreme political positions, including his claim that Social Security is unconstitutional. The Supreme Court resolved this question 74 years ago, but Perry and some other Republicans are raising the possibility that the courts could one day strike down the Social Security Act. Perry has taken a number of stands that might be described as outside of the political mainstream. He has questioned the wisdom of the 17th Amendment, which took the power to choose U.S. Senators away from state legislatures and gave it to voters. He has also mused about the possibility of Texas' seceding from the union.” [Time, 8/15/11]

Perry Said It Took Courage To Call Social Security A Ponzi Scheme. On August 13, 2011 during a meet-and-greet in the home of New Hampshire State Representative Pamela Tucker Rick Perry said, “If you read my book, 'Fed Up,' you hear me call it a Ponzi scheme. Having the courage to call it a Ponzi scheme is I think the first step in us having a national discussion of how do we deal with these entitlements where that they don’t bankrupt this country.” [ABC News, The Note, 8/13/11]

National Journal: Doubt of Climate Change and Evolution Science Prevalent Among GOP. According to Ron Brownstein of National Journal, "On the specifics of the argument, polls leave no doubt that most Republican voters side with Perry. In a 2010 Pew survey, only about one in six Republicans said they believed human activity was changing the climate. In a Gallup survey this March that phrased the question differently, 36 percent of Republicans said they believed pollution from human activities had contributed to “increases in the Earth’s temperature over the last century,” while 62 percent of Republicans attributed those changes to natural changes in the environment. Rejection of the scientific consensus on climate change has become an article of faith for virtually all elements of the GOP coalition... On evolution, just 23 percent of Republicans said in a 2009 Pew poll that human life had evolved solely through a natural process, while another 26 percent said evolution had occurred under divine guidance and 39 percent said life has always existed in its present form. When Gallup phrased the choices slightly differently last December, just 8 percent of Republicans said they believed human life had evolved without assistance from God, 36 percent said evolution had proceeded under divine guidance, and a 52 percent majority said God had created “human beings pretty much in their present form.”" [National Journal,8/23/11]

Perry Used Term“Treasonous” to Describe Federal Reserve Chairman and Stood By Comments. According to the New York Times, “Gov. Rick Perry did not back down on Tuesday, but he did not repeat his suggestion that the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve were potentially “treasonous” and could warrant “ugly” treatment should the Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, ever pay a visit to Texas. “Printing more money to play politics at this particular time in American history is almost treacherous — or treasonous in my opinion,” Mr. Perry said Monday, taking a voter’s question about the Fed and criticizing the possibility of the central bank’s taking further steps between now and the election to keep interest rates low. He added, “I don’t know what y’all would do to him in Iowa, but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas.” [New York Times, 8/16/11]

Perry Has Twice Suggested or Threatened That Texas May Secede from the US. According to the Texas Tribune, “As Gov. Rick Perry begins criss-crossing the nation in pursuit of the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, one of his most controversial utterances as governor — his flirtation with secession at an April 2009 rally on the steps of Austin's City Hall — is sure to get renewed scrutiny from the national press. Turns out, it wasn't the first time Perry entertained the idea of Texas leaving the United States of America.” [Texas Tribune, 8/10/11]

Romney, Huntsman, Pawlenty All Signed On To Ryan Plan to End Medicare After Backlash Against Gingrich. Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Jon Huntsman all signed onto Paul Ryan’s plan to end Medicare shortly after Newt Gingrich’s campaign imploded after he criticized the plan. [ABC News, 6/2/11; Politico, 5/26/11; Time, 5/20/11]

Ron Paul’s Views Now Mainstream in Republican Party. According to PBS, “Circumstances in 2011 are different. Jobs are issue No. 1, the war in Iraq has faded to a back-burner issue, and with the success of the Tea Party in last year's congressional elections, Ron Paul's ideas about shrinking government by eliminating the Federal Reserve, the CIA and the departments of Agriculture, Education, Energy and Commerce, don't seem so foreign.” [PBS, 7/20/11]

Half of Texas Republicans Said Texas Would be Better Off as an Independent Country. Asked the question, "Do you think Texas would be better off as an independent nation or as part of the United States of America?", 48% of Republicans said Texas would be better as an independent country. [Talking Points Memo, 4/23/09]

51% of Texas Republicans Approved of Rick Perry’s Suggestion That Texas May Secede. 51% of Texas Republicans said they approved of Perry’s comments in response to the question, "Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Perry's suggestion that Texas may need to leave the United States?" [Talking Points Memo, 4/23/09]

MEMO: Romney's artificially low expectations in Ames

To: Ames Straw Poll Watchers

From: Bill Burton, Priorities USA Action

Re: Romney's artificially low expectations in Ames

Date: August 13, 2011

Washington thinks it has the Ames Straw Poll storyline down: it's Tim Pawlenty’s last chance to stay in contention, the test of whether Michele Bachmann’s can turn enthusiasm into organization and Rick Santorum's experiment to see if his family farm's peach jam can turn into votes.

But in the swirl of excitement, revival of Sarah Palin and timely Rick Perry campaign announcement, let's not forget one important fact: Mitt Romney won the 2007 Ames Straw Poll by a 14-point margin.

Romney has enlisted a string of high-profile Iowa endorsers, leads public polling in Iowa and is sitting on $13 million in campaign cash, not counting his vast personal fortune. He participated in the Iowa debate on Thursday, his campaign touted the 10,000 Iowans that joined his tele-town hall, and his campaign is quietly pushing people to attend Ames.

The Romney spin that they aren't competing or even concerned about the results in Iowa doesn't stand up to the facts.

In 2007, he won Ames by changing his position on virtually every issue to suit the right-wing Republican base in Iowa. This year, he has executed the same strategy of saying or doing anything to please the extreme right, including his recent refusal to support any plan to avert U.S. default.

It must be particularly upsetting for Romney to have spent five years and $100 million running for President and to now be upstaged by a Texas governor who hasn't announced his campaign yet, a three-term extremist Congresswoman, and the Facebook account of a resigned Alaska Governor.

For Tim Pawlenty, Ames is the end of a long march from being the top Romney opponent to a candidate barely able to stay in the race. Pawlenty has veered from getting bashed by Michele Bachmann for leaving their state in horrible fiscal condition. He has not been able to bounce back from his weak debate performance in New Hampshire, and his questionable performance in Thursday’s Iowa debate didn’t help much. Ames is his last chance to show strength.

Michele Bachmann’s likely strong showing at Ames proves just how extreme the Republican Party has become. It tells you all you need to know about today’s Republican Party that a leading candidate for their nomination has called for abolition of the minimum wage, called Americorps a “re-education camp”, called for an investigation of Democrats for “anti-American” activities, and stood by her husband’s remark that gay individuals are “barbarians.”

Background

Flashback: “AMES, Iowa – The outcome of the Republican Straw Poll was announced here tonight, with Mitt Romney easily claiming the first prize of the presidential campaign.” Romney won 32 percent of the vote, 14 percent ahead of his nearest competitor. Romney said after the victory, “This important victory sends a signal to grassroots Republican activists across the country that we are working hard to earn their support, and that we are ready to begin the work of strengthening our economy, our military and our families.” [New York Times, 8/11/07; CBS News, 8/11/07]

Romney Preparing for Potential Late Entry to Win Iowa. According to the Associated Press, “But Romney's healthy fundraising, with as much as $20 million in the three-month reporting period that ended last week, and his lead in national polls give him flexibility his less-known rivals lack and make it possible for him to wait to see how the chips fall in Iowathis summer, and decide later whether to up his ante. [Associated Press,7/2/11]

Romney Campaign Quietly Pushing People to Attend Ames. According to Politico, “Mitt Romney says he’s not competing in the Iowa straw poll. He’s made one appearance in the state as a presidential candidate, and he says he wants to put his time and effort instead into an “actual election contest that generates delegates.” But that doesn’t mean his campaign hasn’t been playing close attention to Ames. Romney’s three paid staffers here have done what they can to ensure the former Massachusetts governor, who’ll be on the ballot despite opting against competing, gets at least some support Saturday.” [Politico, 8/11/11]

Politico: Romney Working “Feverishly to Lower” Expectations in Iowa. According to Politico, “the former Massachusetts governor’s aim, according to multiple aides and advisers, is to exceed expectations his team is working feverishly to lower in Iowa, to come back strong with a win in New Hampshire, to survive South Carolina in part by picking up an off-setting victory in Nevada and then to settle in for what many described as “a slog” that they’ll emerge from thanks to superior money and organization.” [Politico, 3/25/11]

Bachmann: Obama and Democrats May Have Anti-American Views. According to Think Progress, ““I’m very concerned that he may have anti-American views,” said Bachmann. “That’s what the American people are concerned about.” She then went further, suggesting that all liberal views — held by people such as Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, professors, and all Americans who identify themselves as “liberals” — are “anti-American.” When host Chris Matthews, stunned by her remarks, asked Bachmann how many people in Congress hold anti-American views, she responded, “You’ll have to ask them.”” [Think Progress, 11/17/08]

Bachmann: Americorps Amounts to Re-Education Camps. According to Bachmann, “I believe when it's all said and done, this service that -- I believe that there's a very strong chance that we will see that young people will be put into mandatory service. And the real concern is that there are provisions for what I would call re-education camps for young people, where young people have to go and get trained in a philosophy that the government puts forward and then they have to go and work in some of these politically correct forums. It's very concerning.” [Talking Points Memo, 4/6/09]

Bachmann’s Husband and Strategist: Gays Are Barbarians That Need to Be Disciplined. Referring to gay individuals Marcus Bachmann said, “We have to understand: Barbarians need to be educated. They need to be disciplined. Just because someone feels it or thinks it doesn’t mean that we are supposed to go down that road. That’s what is called the sinful nature.” [Los Angeles Times, 6/30/11]

Bachmann: Eliminate the Minimum Wage. While arguing against a bill to raise the minimum wage in Minnesota, Bachmann called for abolishing the minimum wage entirely. [Rolling Stone, 6/16/11]

MEMO: Romney waits, waffles and wimps out

To: Interested Parties

From: Bill Burton, Priorities USA Action

Re: Romney waits, waffles and wimps out

Date: August 1, 2011

While Romney has been consistent in constantly changing his positions to suit the political winds, even his opponents thought that perhaps this crisis would be the time when he finally stood for something other than the politics of convenience.

At a moment that calls for courage and leadership, Romney has buckled to the furthest right wing of the Republican Party, undermined John Boehner and Mitch McConnell and given aid and comfort to those who prefer default over compromise.

A man who claims strength in his ability to lead our nation's economy would let it default for the first time in its history. Do his supporters on Wall Street and at Bain Capital know that their candidate would allow the United States of America to stop paying its obligations? 

At best his capitulation is a phony concession to extremist members of the Republican Party. At worst it is proof positive that Mitt Romney will say or do anything to win this nomination despite theconsequences for the country he is running to lead.

Though he claims to support cut, cap and balance, Romney's real position is better described as wait, waffle and wimp-out. 

Background

All The Major Candidates President Took A Position On Speaker Boehner’s Debt Plan Except Mitt Romney. ABC News, The Note, reported that “By now all of the major candidates for the Republican presidential nomination have taken a position on House Speaker John Boehner’s debt plan, except that is, for front-runner Mitt Romney.” [ABC News, The Note, 7/27/11]

Politico: Romney’s “absence from the debt ceiling debate has grown conspicuous.” [Politico, 7/29/11]

Wall Street Journal: "Romney Silent Over Debt Talks." “But Mitt Romney, the Republican front-runner, has taken a subtler tack, avoiding the issue of the debt ceiling […]. That has attracted the attention of his GOP challengers, who have begun to accuse him of ducking the most vital issue of the campaign so far.” [Wall Street Journal,7/12/11]

Columbus Dispatch: Romney “avoids issue of debt ceiling.” “In his first public event in Ohio as a 2012 presidential candidate, Republican front-runner Mitt Romney avoided wading into the federal debt-ceiling debate paralyzing Washington, saying only that he favored an already-rejected House Republican plan.” [Columbus Dispatch, 7/28/11]

As Governor of Massachusetts, Romney Raised Taxes to Close a Budget Gap. According to the Daily Beast, “He inherited a $650 million shortfall (with a $3 billion projected deficit), then turned it into a $600 to $700 million surplus by the time he left office. To do so, Romney also made a concerted effort to increase tax revenue, in part by raising fees by a grand total of $432 million […] and in part by closing $309 million in corporate tax loopholes.” [The Daily Beast, 4/18/11]

SUNDAY SHOW MEMO: Tea Party: “Jump!”; GOP Presidential Candidates: “How High?”

To: Interested Parties

From: Bill Burton, Priorities USA Action

Re: Sunday Memo: Tea Party: “Jump!”; GOP Presidential Candidates: “How High?”

Thursday night’s dramatic failure of Speaker Boehner's debt ceiling plan in the House illustrates what has been apparent in the Presidential campaign for months: the Tea Party has unique control over the Republican presidential candidates.

Before falling back on the un-passable approach of amending the Constitution, Boehner was facing an uphill battle. His members were defecting by the dozen. Tim Pawlenty followed Michele Bachmann’s lead in bashing the plan. Rick Perry claimed that impact of a US default was not significant. And, seeing Tea Party backlash, Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney refused to even take a position on the Boehner plan.

Mitt Romney won’t show any leadership on the debt ceiling because he is more concerned with avoiding the ire of the Tea Party than preventing the first ever default on America’s obligations. While Romney has always been a political opportunist, this week demonstrates that even when America’s economy is at stake he doesn’t have the courage to stand up to the Tea Party.  

This isn’t a new trend. In early May, Newt Gingrich criticized the Tea Party-backed plan to end Medicare and saw his campaign implode. Romney, Huntsman, and Pawlenty got the signal and quickly said they would sign the plan into law.  

Then, earlier this month, the Tea Party produced the ‘Cut Cap and Balance’ pledge requiring a balanced budget amendment prior to ever raising the debt ceiling. This unrealistic and impossible plan was called “foolish” by Senator McCain. But, like clockwork, Romney and the other leading candidates signed on.

For Republican presidential candidates, when the Tea Party yells “Jump,” they whisper back: “How high, sir?”

Background

All The Major Candidates President have Taken A Position On Speaker Boehner’s Debt Plan Except Mitt Romney.  ABC News, The Note, reported that “By now all of the major candidates for the Republican presidential nomination have taken a position on House Speaker John Boehner’s debt plan, except that is, for front-runner Mitt Romney.”  [ABC News, The Note, 7/27/11]

Politico: Romney’s “absence from the debt ceiling debate has grown conspicuous.” [Politico, 7/29/11]

'Cut, Cap and Balance' Legislation was Largely Driven by Tea Party Operatives, GOP Candidates Quickly Signed It. According to CBS News op-ed, "Soon after the legislation was unveiled, Let Freedom Ring organized a coalition of over 100 conservative groups, including Americans for Prosperity, Club for Growth, Freedom Works, Tea Party Express, and local Tea Party chapters fromcoast to coast. Then Let Freedom Ring and its coalition led the charge.They created a website, cutcapbalanceact.com, which has a pledge asking lawmakers to support the legislation—so far, every major GOP presidential candidate except Jon Huntsman has signed it, along with twelve senators andthirty-nine House members. Over 240,000 people have also pledged to push their elected representatives to support Cut, Cap, and Balance, which already hasforty co-sponsors in the Senate and 115 in the House." [CBS News, 7/28/11]

'Cut, Cap and Balance' Legislation Favored by the Tea Party. According to the Washington Post, "the House has passed legislation conditioning a $2.4 trillion increase in the nation’s borrowing cap on a tea party-backed plan to require immediate spending cuts and a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget." [Associated Press, 7/19/11]

Romney, Huntsman, Pawlenty All Signed On To Ryan Plan to End Medicare After Backlash Against Gingrich. Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Jon Huntsman all signed onto Paul Ryan’s plan to end Medicare shortly after Newt Gingrich’s campaign imploded after he criticized the plan. [ABC News, 6/2/11; Politico, 5/26/11; Time, 5/20/11]  

Tea Party Activism Will Force Candidates to Embrace the Ryan Budget. The Associated Press reports that, "Ignoring Ryan's plan altogether could anger conservative voters and tea party activists pressing for less spending and smaller government. The likely candidates are all but certain to be asked about the proposal as they campaign in the early nominating states; GOP primary voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina -- who take their jobs of vetting candidates seriously -- will demand specific answers." [Associated Press, 4/6/11]

Tea Party Pressure is Forcing Republican Presidential Candidates to Move to the Right. According to the Los Angeles Times, "The perceived influence of "tea party" voters, who helped produce big Republican victories in last year's elections, has accentuated the swing to the right. So have the actions of the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives and newly elected Republican governors. They are redefining conservatism, by proposing to turn Medicare into a voucher program, calling for draconian cuts in government spending and abandoning cap-and-trade energy alliances once favored by free-market advocates. Republican presidential candidates have been forced to fall in line, or else." [Los Angeles Times, 6/13/11]